🎯 Módulo predictor¶
El módulo predictor implementa algoritmos avanzados de predicción de quiniela, con tres estrategias: conservadora, arriesgada y personalizada.
Clase Principal: KinielaPredictor¶
Método predict¶
predict(jornada, temporada, strategy="conservadora", custom_distribution=None)
Genera una predicción completa de quiniela usando la estrategia especificada.
Parámetros¶
Nombre |
Tipo |
Descripción |
|---|---|---|
|
int |
Número de jornada |
|
int |
Año de la temporada |
|
str |
Estrategia: “conservadora”, “arriesgada”, “personalizada” (por defecto: conservadora) |
|
dict |
Solo para estrategia personalizada. Ej: |
return¶
dict con predicción completa y estadísticas (ver ejemplo de estructura más abajo).
Estrategias de Predicción¶
🎯 Conservadora¶
Selecciona siempre el signo con mayor probabilidad LAE. Máxima fiabilidad estadística, menos riesgo de sorpresas.
🎲 Arriesgada¶
Balancea probabilidades LAE con análisis contextual (rachas, histórico, clasificación). Ajusta probabilidades según forma actual y momentum de equipos.
⚙️ Personalizada¶
Optimiza la distribución de signos según especificaciones del usuario (custom_distribution).
Ejemplos de Uso Programático¶
Nota
Los valores de jornada y temporada en los siguientes ejemplos son ilustrativos. Para probar su funcionamiento, actualiza estos valores con datos actuales, ya que las APIs no proporcionan datos históricos.
Predicción Conservadora¶
import json
from kinielagpt.predictor import KinielaPredictor
predictor = KinielaPredictor()
result = predictor.predict(jornada=32, temporada=2026)
print(json.dumps(result, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False))
Resultado
{
"jornada": 32,
"temporada": 2026,
"strategy": "conservadora",
"predictions": [
{
"match_id": 1,
"match": "CELTA | VALENCIA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 56.0% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 56.0,
"X": 28.4,
"2": 15.6
}
},
{
"match_id": 2,
"match": "OSASUNA | ATH.CLUB",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 2: 40.6% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 25.7,
"X": 33.6,
"2": 40.6
}
},
{
"match_id": 3,
"match": "ELCHE | VILLARREAL",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 2: 58.2% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 16.1,
"X": 25.6,
"2": 58.2
}
},
{
"match_id": 4,
"match": "ESPANYOL | BARCELONA",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 2: 65.6% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 10.8,
"X": 23.6,
"2": 65.6
}
},
{
"match_id": 5,
"match": "SEVILLA | LEVANTE",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 74.0% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 74.0,
"X": 18.0,
"2": 8.0
}
},
{
"match_id": 6,
"match": "R.MADRID | BETIS",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 77.5% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 77.5,
"X": 15.8,
"2": 6.7
}
},
{
"match_id": 7,
"match": "ALAVÉS | R.OVIEDO",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 59.3% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 59.3,
"X": 26.9,
"2": 13.8
}
},
{
"match_id": 8,
"match": "MALLORCA | GIRONA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 45.8% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 45.8,
"X": 32.1,
"2": 22.1
}
},
{
"match_id": 9,
"match": "CASTELLÓN | HUESCA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 63.5% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 63.5,
"X": 26.2,
"2": 10.4
}
},
{
"match_id": 10,
"match": "VALLADOLID | RACING S.",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 2: 39.4% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 30.4,
"X": 30.2,
"2": 39.4
}
},
{
"match_id": 11,
"match": "CÓRDOBA | BURGOS",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 42.2% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 42.2,
"X": 36.9,
"2": 20.9
}
},
{
"match_id": 12,
"match": "SPORTING | MÁLAGA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 57.1% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 57.1,
"X": 29.7,
"2": 13.2
}
},
{
"match_id": 13,
"match": "R.ZARAGOZA | LAS PALMAS",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 2: 44.8% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 24.5,
"X": 30.7,
"2": 44.8
}
},
{
"match_id": 14,
"match": "DEPORTIVO | CÁDIZ",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE del 1: 64.5% (la más alta)",
"probabilities": {
"1": 64.5,
"X": 24.5,
"2": 11.0
}
},
{
"match_id": 15,
"match": "R.SOCIEDAD | AT.MADRID",
"prediction": "1-2",
"confidence": "N/A",
"reasoning": "Marcador más probable basado en probabilidades de goles",
"probabilities": {
"id": 15,
"0_Goles_Local_Prob": 28.3,
"1_Goles_Local_Prob": 54.9,
"2_Goles_Local_Prob": 12.9,
"Mas_Goles_Local_Prob": 3.9,
"0_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 8.4,
"1_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 37.2,
"2_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 40.1,
"Mas_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 14.3,
"partido": "R.SOCIEDAD | AT.MADRID"
}
}
],
"summary": {
"1": 9,
"X": 0,
"2": 5
}
}
Predicción Arriesgada¶
import json
from kinielagpt.predictor import KinielaPredictor
predictor = KinielaPredictor()
result = predictor.predict(jornada=32, temporada=2026, strategy="arriesgada")
print(json.dumps(result, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False))
Resultado
{
"jornada": 32,
"temporada": 2026,
"strategy": "arriesgada",
"predictions": [
{
"match_id": 1,
"match": "CELTA | VALENCIA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 56.0%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 56.0,
"X": 28.4,
"2": 15.6
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 56.950476114586245,
"X": 27.184748396350457,
"2": 15.864775489063309
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 2.1,
"visitor_strength": 2.1,
"draw_tendency": -3.9000000000000004,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 2,
"match": "OSASUNA | ATH.CLUB",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 2: 40.6%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 25.7,
"X": 33.6,
"2": 40.6
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 25.254316110537644,
"X": 30.01877065590205,
"2": 44.7269132335603
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": -0.9000000000000008,
"visitor_strength": 11.099999999999998,
"draw_tendency": -9.9,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 3,
"match": "ELCHE | VILLARREAL",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 2: 58.2%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 16.1,
"X": 25.6,
"2": 58.2
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 17.6858334102134,
"X": 26.36562147502038,
"2": 55.948545114766226
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 6.766666666666667,
"visitor_strength": -6.566666666666667,
"draw_tendency": 0.09999999999999898,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 4,
"match": "ESPANYOL | BARCELONA",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 2: 65.6%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 10.8,
"X": 23.6,
"2": 65.6
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 9.290433454267712,
"X": 23.00515562344854,
"2": 67.70441092228374
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": -9.9,
"visitor_strength": 8.1,
"draw_tendency": 2.1,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 5,
"match": "SEVILLA | LEVANTE",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 74.0%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 74.0,
"X": 18.0,
"2": 8.0
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 75.07142857142858,
"X": 17.73938223938224,
"2": 7.1891891891891895
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 5.1,
"visitor_strength": -6.9,
"draw_tendency": 2.1,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 6,
"match": "R.MADRID | BETIS",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 77.5%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 77.5,
"X": 15.8,
"2": 6.7
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 77.80634820743771,
"X": 15.862455505516332,
"2": 6.331196287045959
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 2.1,
"visitor_strength": -3.9000000000000004,
"draw_tendency": 2.1,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 7,
"match": "ALAVÉS | R.OVIEDO",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 59.3%. ajustada a 64.9% por análisis contextual. ventaja del local por clasificación/histórico.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 59.3,
"X": 26.9,
"2": 13.8
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 64.94724929385136,
"X": 23.423464711274065,
"2": 11.629285994874579
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 17.1,
"visitor_strength": -9.9,
"draw_tendency": -6.9,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 8,
"match": "MALLORCA | GIRONA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 45.8%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 45.8,
"X": 32.1,
"2": 22.1
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 48.09120115394702,
"X": 31.601199842643585,
"2": 20.307599003409386
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 6.766666666666667,
"visitor_strength": -6.566666666666667,
"draw_tendency": 0.09999999999999898,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 9,
"match": "CASTELLÓN | HUESCA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 63.5%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 63.5,
"X": 26.2,
"2": 10.4
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 60.29448804459053,
"X": 27.638499695964065,
"2": 12.0670122594454
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": -9.9,
"visitor_strength": 10.099999999999998,
"draw_tendency": 0.09999999999999898,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 10,
"match": "VALLADOLID | RACING S.",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 2: 39.4%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 30.4,
"X": 30.2,
"2": 39.4
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 31.944649963006654,
"X": 29.016976944150052,
"2": 39.03837309284329
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 5.1,
"visitor_strength": -0.9000000000000008,
"draw_tendency": -3.9000000000000004,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 11,
"match": "CÓRDOBA | BURGOS",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 42.2%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 42.2,
"X": 36.9,
"2": 20.9
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 44.380942999737336,
"X": 36.38386524822694,
"2": 19.23519175203572
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 6.766666666666667,
"visitor_strength": -6.566666666666667,
"draw_tendency": 0.09999999999999898,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 12,
"match": "SPORTING | MÁLAGA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 57.1%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 57.1,
"X": 29.7,
"2": 13.2
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 59.04668667289812,
"X": 28.082550302553255,
"2": 12.870763024548628
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 5.1,
"visitor_strength": -0.9000000000000008,
"draw_tendency": -3.9000000000000004,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 13,
"match": "R.ZARAGOZA | LAS PALMAS",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 2: 44.8%.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 24.5,
"X": 30.7,
"2": 44.8
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 25.055842139530228,
"X": 30.473982070416188,
"2": 44.47017579005359
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 2.1,
"visitor_strength": -0.9000000000000008,
"draw_tendency": -0.9000000000000008,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 14,
"match": "DEPORTIVO | CÁDIZ",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Probabilidad LAE 1: 64.5%. ventaja del local por clasificación/histórico.",
"probabilities": {
"1": 64.5,
"X": 24.5,
"2": 11.0
},
"adjusted_probabilities": {
"1": 67.69910250354275,
"X": 22.93764761454889,
"2": 9.363249881908361
},
"context_factors": {
"local_strength": 11.099999999999998,
"visitor_strength": -9.9,
"draw_tendency": -0.9000000000000008,
"recent_form_local": "neutral",
"recent_form_visitor": "neutral"
}
},
{
"match_id": 15,
"match": "R.SOCIEDAD | AT.MADRID",
"prediction": "1-2",
"confidence": "N/A",
"reasoning": "Marcador más probable basado en probabilidades de goles",
"probabilities": {
"id": 15,
"0_Goles_Local_Prob": 28.3,
"1_Goles_Local_Prob": 54.9,
"2_Goles_Local_Prob": 12.9,
"Mas_Goles_Local_Prob": 3.9,
"0_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 8.4,
"1_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 37.2,
"2_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 40.1,
"Mas_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 14.3,
"partido": "R.SOCIEDAD | AT.MADRID"
}
}
],
"summary": {
"1": 9,
"X": 0,
"2": 5
}
}
Predicción Personalizada¶
import json
from kinielagpt.predictor import KinielaPredictor
predictor = KinielaPredictor()
custom_dist = {"1": 7, "X": 4, "2": 4}
result = predictor.predict(jornada=32, temporada=2026, strategy="personalizada", custom_distribution=custom_dist)
print(json.dumps(result, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False))
Resultado
{
"jornada": 32,
"temporada": 2026,
"strategy": "personalizada",
"predictions": [
{
"match_id": 1,
"match": "CELTA | VALENCIA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 57.2",
"probabilities": {
"1": 56.0,
"X": 28.4,
"2": 15.6
},
"score": 57.175999999999995
},
{
"match_id": 2,
"match": "OSASUNA | ATH.CLUB",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 45.1",
"probabilities": {
"1": 25.7,
"X": 33.6,
"2": 40.6
},
"score": 45.1066
},
{
"match_id": 3,
"match": "ELCHE | VILLARREAL",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 54.4",
"probabilities": {
"1": 16.1,
"X": 25.6,
"2": 58.2
},
"score": 54.37820000000001
},
{
"match_id": 4,
"match": "ESPANYOL | BARCELONA",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 70.9",
"probabilities": {
"1": 10.8,
"X": 23.6,
"2": 65.6
},
"score": 70.91359999999999
},
{
"match_id": 5,
"match": "SEVILLA | LEVANTE",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 77.8",
"probabilities": {
"1": 74.0,
"X": 18.0,
"2": 8.0
},
"score": 77.774
},
{
"match_id": 6,
"match": "R.MADRID | BETIS",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 79.1",
"probabilities": {
"1": 77.5,
"X": 15.8,
"2": 6.7
},
"score": 79.1275
},
{
"match_id": 7,
"match": "ALAVÉS | R.OVIEDO",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 69.4",
"probabilities": {
"1": 59.3,
"X": 26.9,
"2": 13.8
},
"score": 69.4403
},
{
"match_id": 8,
"match": "MALLORCA | GIRONA",
"prediction": "X",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 32.1",
"probabilities": {
"1": 45.8,
"X": 32.1,
"2": 22.1
},
"score": 32.1321
},
{
"match_id": 9,
"match": "CASTELLÓN | HUESCA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 57.2",
"probabilities": {
"1": 63.5,
"X": 26.2,
"2": 10.4
},
"score": 57.2135
},
{
"match_id": 10,
"match": "VALLADOLID | RACING S.",
"prediction": "X",
"confidence": "BAJA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 29.0",
"probabilities": {
"1": 30.4,
"X": 30.2,
"2": 39.4
},
"score": 29.022199999999998
},
{
"match_id": 11,
"match": "CÓRDOBA | BURGOS",
"prediction": "X",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 36.9",
"probabilities": {
"1": 42.2,
"X": 36.9,
"2": 20.9
},
"score": 36.936899999999994
},
{
"match_id": 12,
"match": "SPORTING | MÁLAGA",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 60.0",
"probabilities": {
"1": 57.1,
"X": 29.7,
"2": 13.2
},
"score": 60.0121
},
{
"match_id": 13,
"match": "R.ZARAGOZA | LAS PALMAS",
"prediction": "2",
"confidence": "MEDIA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 44.4",
"probabilities": {
"1": 24.5,
"X": 30.7,
"2": 44.8
},
"score": 44.3968
},
{
"match_id": 14,
"match": "DEPORTIVO | CÁDIZ",
"prediction": "1",
"confidence": "ALTA",
"reasoning": "Optimizado para distribución personalizada. Score: 71.7",
"probabilities": {
"1": 64.5,
"X": 24.5,
"2": 11.0
},
"score": 71.6595
},
{
"match_id": 15,
"match": "R.SOCIEDAD | AT.MADRID",
"prediction": "1-2",
"confidence": "N/A",
"reasoning": "Marcador más probable basado en probabilidades de goles",
"probabilities": {
"id": 15,
"0_Goles_Local_Prob": 28.3,
"1_Goles_Local_Prob": 54.9,
"2_Goles_Local_Prob": 12.9,
"Mas_Goles_Local_Prob": 3.9,
"0_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 8.4,
"1_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 37.2,
"2_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 40.1,
"Mas_Goles_Visitante_Prob": 14.3,
"partido": "R.SOCIEDAD | AT.MADRID"
}
}
],
"summary": {
"1": 7,
"X": 3,
"2": 4
}
}
Validación de Distribución Personalizada¶
La estrategia personalizada valida que:
La suma de signos sea exactamente 15
Cada signo tenga al menos 0 y máximo 15
Las claves sean exactamente “1”, “X”, “2”
# Ejemplos válidos
{"1": 7, "X": 4, "2": 4} # Suma = 15
{"1": 10, "X": 3, "2": 2} # Suma = 15
# Ejemplos inválidos
{"1": 8, "X": 4, "2": 4} # Suma = 16
{"1": 7, "X": 4} # Falta "2"
Comparación de Estrategias¶
Aspecto |
Conservadora |
Arriesgada |
Personalizada |
|---|---|---|---|
Base |
Probabilidades |
+ Contexto |
Distribución objetivo |
Riesgo |
Bajo |
Medio |
Variable |
Personalización |
Ninguna |
Automática |
Total |
Uso típico |
Validación |
Predicción |
Optimización |
Consejos de Uso¶
Conservadora: Ideal para principiantes o validación
Arriesgada: Recomendada para predicciones reales
Personalizada: Para usuarios avanzados con estrategias específicas
Todas las estrategias incluyen justificaciones detalladas para cada predicción.